The Strange Dynamics of Today’s Housing Market
Anyone currently shopping for a home knows that the market remains tight, with limited options for both new and existing properties. While the housing market is gradually emerging from one of its leanest periods in history, with inventory levels starting to rise, there’s an unexpected twist: the supply of newly built homes appears disproportionately high compared to existing homes. Yet, despite this increase in new home availability, home prices continue to climb, defying traditional market logic where higher supply typically cools prices.
This unusual situation can be traced back to the housing market’s history, particularly the subprime mortgage boom of the early 2000s, which set the stage for today’s complex market dynamics. Currently, there is a 4.4-month supply of both new and existing homes available, with a six-month supply considered balanced. However, new homes now make up a larger share of the market, with a nine-month supply—nearly three times that of existing homes. This discrepancy has been driven by the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, shifts in mortgage rates, and the unique pressures of the Covid-19 pandemic, which saw unprecedented demand and record-low mortgage rates. As a result, while supply has increased, particularly in the new home sector, prices remain high due to the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand, further exacerbated by economic uncertainties and the fluctuating mortgage landscape.
Mortgage Rate Volatility and Its Impact on Housing Supply
The current divide in the housing market between newly built and existing homes can largely be attributed to the roller-coaster ride of mortgage rates over the past few years. The pandemic saw rates drop to historic lows, spurring a surge in home purchases and refinancing, which in turn locked many homeowners into low rates. Now, with mortgage rates hovering around 7%, those who locked in lower rates are reluctant to sell, leading to a scarcity of existing home listings. This “lock-in effect” has shifted demand toward new homes, where builders are capitalizing by offering incentives such as mortgage rate buy-downs to attract buyers.
Interestingly, while resale listings have improved slightly, with active listings up 16.5% from the previous year, much of this is due to homes staying on the market longer. The most significant shortages are in the mid-to-lower price tiers, where demand is highest, particularly for homes priced between $100,000 and $500,000. Despite an increase in supply in these tiers, it remains insufficient to meet demand, keeping prices high. In contrast, the luxury market, with homes priced above $1 million, is experiencing a slower supply growth and less price pressure.
As we move through 2024, analysts anticipate that mortgage rates may decrease, potentially easing some of the supply constraints. However, if rates do drop, demand is likely to surge again, putting additional pressure on the already strained supply and keeping prices elevated. While inventory is expected to continue rising, particularly as the lock-in effect wanes, the current dynamics suggest that home prices may remain stubbornly high, especially in markets with low inventory and strong demand. The housing market remains in a delicate balance, with future price movements dependent on the interplay of mortgage rates, supply, and demand.
