Fannie Mae Forecasts Lower Mortgage Rates and Softer Home Prices Through 2026
After years of turbulence in the housing market, new forecasts suggest the next two years could bring long-awaited relief for homebuyers.
When inflation soared past 9% in 2022, the Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs aggressively, aiming to cool the economy. By late 2024, inflation had nearly returned to the Fed’s 2% target, prompting interest rate cuts. Many expected mortgage rates to dip below 6%. Instead, they climbed back toward 7%, leaving economists and homebuyers scratching their heads.
Why Rates Stayed Higher Than Expected
Despite rate cuts, stubborn inflation, global economic uncertainty, and volatile markets have kept mortgage rates elevated. The result: hesitant buyers, reluctant sellers, and a housing market stuck in neutral.
But new analysis from Fannie Mae offers a more optimistic outlook for the years ahead, with falling mortgage rates, rising sales, and slower home price growth on the horizon.
Mortgage Rates Could Drift Lower
At the Federal Reserve’s July 29 meeting, policymakers held rates steady, but the CME FedWatch tool shows a 65% chance of a cut in September. If that happens, investor confidence could improve, pushing mortgage rates back down.
Fannie Mae now projects the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will fall to 6.4% by the end of 2025 and 6.0% by the end of 2026. While modest, these revisions are more favorable than the agency’s earlier predictions of 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively.
Lower rates could breathe life into the market. Fannie Mae has raised its sales forecast to 4.85 million homes sold in 2025 (up from 4.82 million) and 5.35 million in 2026 (up from 5.25 million).
Housing Prices May Cool
While affordability challenges remain the biggest barrier for first-time buyers, slower price growth could provide some relief.
According to Fannie Mae’s July update, annual home price appreciation is expected to slow to 2.8% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, down from prior forecasts of 4.1% and 2.0%. Rising inventory and weaker demand are likely to keep prices in check.
For sellers, slower growth may be a disappointment. But for buyers, stable home values paired with lower mortgage rates could mark a turning point after years of steep increases.
What It Means for Buyers and Sellers
Buyers may finally see a market with less price pressure, more inventory, and slightly lower borrowing costs—though affordability will still be a challenge.
Sellers may need to adjust expectations, as slower price growth and higher competition could soften returns.
The market overall is likely to move gradually back toward balance, with fewer extremes than in recent years.
Fannie Mae’s latest forecast suggests the housing market may be entering a period of stability. Mortgage rates are expected to decline gradually, sales should climb, and price growth will ease. For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, 2025 and 2026 may finally bring the window of opportunity they’ve been hoping for.